Thursday, September 24, 2009

9/24 Intraday update

Looks like we gonna finish red today. The second red day in September... (just the second). It can't be green every day. It's just impossible, lets be honest. We are trading a portfolio and our goal is to outperform the market. Make double, triple or quadruple of what major indices do in green days and drop only 1/2, 1/3 or 1/4 of what major indices drop in red days.
 
BUT we are not just an index of penny stocks. We have full control of our portfolio and can do much better than an index. How? By selling quick and fast runners up on good news (or no news - doesn't matter). Even if market sells A LOT for the next months or even quarters, believe me, from 140 symbols we have, a dozen if not more will DOUBLE for the next market sell off months. (possible sell-off months). You may say - what about other picks that go down in value by 30% or 50% or may be even more... So, what? Remember, we lose a trade only when a company goes bankrupt. Until then - we are in the game, until then we have tons of reasons to double and triple in price.
 
Ultimate score for our portfolio is # of stock that doubled vs. # of stock that declared bankruptcy. So far, this year (since January 2009) I counted 276 cases of 100%+ increases in price that I personally traded (overall market had 1000s of them) AND just 2 cases of bankruptcy I traded and lost - BWTR and TPUT. Loss in each trade were 65% and 75% for each position. That's it! This was in the past. What about future? What if we have a ruthless sell-off till the end of this year. 
 
Well.. I don't have a crystal ball, may be we sell off hard. BUT I believe that at the same time we'll see the same picture again and again - A LOT of companies in our portfolio going up 100%+, and just FEW companies going bankrupt. May be score will be less than 276 vs. 2...but, I am sure, we gonna survive this sell off! Calm down, relax and embrace the market action. This storm should bring us a lot of new shells with beautiful pearls in it.
 
Good luck to all penny stock traders!
 
P.S. don't expect many trades today. We just watching where this all is heading. Sell high flyers we hold on pops 30% and more to raise cash. SDS is our airbag protection for now.
Brief list of green runners for today:
LBIX - 36% we have too little position here. Hold
ULU - 8% I think it can do much better. Hold
MDTL - 24% good action, good position size. can do better. Nearest support is much higher. Hold
 

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