In my previous post we showed a distribution of our trade entries in 2010 - (Buy) times between 9:30 and 10:00am, and we also said that the actual entry depends on multiple factors, such as price move, density of trading, volume, etc.
Well, based on this logic, it is possible that some trade alerts are never realized. It was pointed out by some readers and this is very true! In my distribution chart I assumed that all alerts are realized. However, the reality is slightly different. We had 368 trades and 410 Alerts in 2010. What happened with 42 Alerts? We never entered into an actual trade with those 42 alerts. 42/410 gives us 10.2%.
So, with a probability of 10.2% alerts we send out after 4pm every afternoon will never play out. In other words, 1 out of every 10 trade alerts never trigger an actual trade entry.
When do we know that it's not working out as we expected? At 10:00am EST. We can tell you, just send us your email and we let you know.
Again, this is just statistics ;-)
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